What is the STC solar rebate and how is it changing?

If you’ve started getting quotes for solar, you’ve probably heard about the “solar rebate.” It’s not a cash-back offer after installation, but an upfront discount that significantly lowers the price you pay. This incentive is officially known as the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES).

Here’s how it works:

• When you install an eligible solar system, you create Small-scale Technology Certificates, or STCs.

• The number of STCs you get depends on your system’s size and your location (Brisbane is in Zone 3).

• Crucially, it also depends on the “deeming period”—the number of years until the scheme ends in 2030.

This deeming period reduces by one year, every year, on January 1st. On 1 January 2026, the deeming period will decrease from 6 years to 5 years. This means any system installed from that date forward will generate fewer STCs, resulting in a smaller upfront discount.

Let’s look at the real-world impact for a standard 6.6kW solar system in Brisbane.

As you can see, the change isn’t trivial. It represents a concrete reduction in the government incentive available to homeowners.

How the 2026 STC rebate change will affect Brisbane solar prices

The reduction of 9 STCs for a 6.6kW system directly translates to a price increase of around $342 for the consumer, assuming the STC market price holds steady at about $38 per certificate. For a larger 10kW system, the price rise would be closer to $520.

However, the STC rebate is only one piece of the puzzle when forecasting Brisbane solar power prices for 2026. Two other major factors are at play:

• Solar Panel Prices: The global cost of solar PV modules has been on a downward trend for years due to manufacturing efficiencies and technological advancements. While we can’t predict the future with certainty, many industry analysts expect prices for quality panels from brands like REC, Trina, and Jinko to continue to be highly competitive. This could help soften, or even cancel out, the impact of the STC reduction.

• Installation Costs: Labour and operational costs for solar installation businesses are a significant part of the final price. These are less likely to decrease. A reputable installation company invests in ongoing training for its Solar Accreditation Australia (SAA) accredited installers, safety equipment, and compliance with Australian Standards like AS/NZS 5033. These fixed costs are essential for a safe, high-performing system.

My prediction is that we will see a slight net increase in the total cost of a fully installed solar system in Brisbane in early 2026, driven directly by the STC change. However, I don’t expect it to be a dramatic price hike that undermines the value of solar.

Case Study: A Family in The Gap The Kumar family was facing quarterly power bills of over $600. They installed a 6.6kW system with Trina panels and a 10kWh Sungrow battery for a total cost of $15,500. After the Queensland government’s Battery Booster Program rebate, their outlay was closer to $11,500. Their annual savings are now over $2,200, putting them on track for a payback period of just over 5 years, and their last bill was only the daily grid connection fee.

What to expect from Brisbane solar installers

From my analysis of dozens of system quotes and conversations with installers, the industry is well aware of these annual changes. Here’s what you should expect and how to interpret their response.

Reputable installers will be transparent. They will clearly explain the STC reduction in their quotes and conversations. They should be able to show you the difference in the final price if you install in December 2025 versus January 2026. Their focus will be on designing a system that provides the best long-term value for your home, not just rushing a sale before a deadline.

Be wary of high-pressure tactics. Some less scrupulous companies may use the STC change to create false urgency. Phrases like “Prices are going up forever!” or “You must sign today to lock in the old price!” should be a red flag. While there is a real, calculable price difference, it shouldn’t be the basis for a rushed, uninformed decision.

Gigi’s Pro Tip: Always ask for the total, fully-installed price on your quote. Some quotes can be confusing, listing the “solar STC rebate” as a separate line item. Focus on the final figure you have to pay. A good installer, accredited by Solar Accreditation Australia (SAA), will provide a clear, all-inclusive price that covers panels, inverter, mounting, labour, and compliance certificates.

Is it better to install solar now or wait?

This is the key question for many Brisbane homeowners. While installing before the end of 2025 will save you a few hundred dollars, it shouldn’t be the only factor driving your decision.

The best time to go solar is when you are ready and have done your research. The savings you miss out on by waiting a few months are often far less than the money you could lose by choosing the wrong installer or poor-quality components in a rush.

Here are the key considerations:

• Your Finances: Does the upfront cost fit your budget right now? A quality 6.6kW system in Brisbane typically costs between $5,000 and $9,000, depending on the components used.

• Your Energy Bills: If you’re paying high electricity bills, every quarter you wait is another large bill you have to pay. The savings from solar often start immediately.

• Finding the Right Installer: This is the most important step. Take the time to get at least three quotes from well-reviewed, SAA-accredited local installers. This process can take a few weeks.

The STC rebate will continue to phase down each year until it disappears entirely at the end of 2030. While the incentive is reducing, the fundamental value proposition of solar in sunny Brisbane remains incredibly strong.

If you are ready to make a move, acting before the end of the year is a financially sensible choice. If you’re just starting your research journey, don’t panic. The price increase in 2026 is manageable, and solar will continue to be one of the best home upgrades you can make.

If you’d like help navigating the quotes process and finding a trusted local professional, I can connect you with an expert. Just fill out the form below for a no-obligation chat.